
Correlation vs. Causation: The Marketer’s Blind Spot
If you want to waste your marketing budget, chase every correlation you see. If you want to grow, you need to get to the cause, the real reason people say “Yes!” or “I’ll Pass…” to your offer.
Leadership is leading, Sales is selling, and Product is shipping. But the numbers aren’t moving the way the plan says they should.
Most growth plans are built on the same assumptions that generated early revenue. None of it has been pressure-tested at the price point, the volume, or the speed the plan assumes. Untested assumptions don’t stay hidden. They show up in the numbers.
York Effect assessed 75+ founders and growth leaders, from pre-revenue to $5M ARR, across two dimensions: Offer Clarity and Audience Validation.
Most companies were operating 30% below what was required to reach their revenue goals. Confidence was high. Proof was not.
For when the problem lives in the business.

If you want to waste your marketing budget, chase every correlation you see. If you want to grow, you need to get to the cause, the real reason people say “Yes!” or “I’ll Pass…” to your offer.

Founders are some of the most passionate, intelligent people I know. They know their industry. They’ve lived with the problem. And they’ve spent months, often years building a solution they know works. But…

It’s one thing to gather feedback, it’s another to understand what actually makes people say yes.
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